美国6月ISM制造业PMI 53.3，预期54，前值54。

Fed chair KEVIN WARSH said the labour market is stable and demand remains strong; he declined to say whether the Fed will hike in July, saying the move will be fully debated. He prefers a smaller Fed balance sheet, will chart a new policy path, reaffirmed no short-term forward guidance but will keep the dot plot, and noted inflation expectations and risks have eased in recent weeks while committing to return inflation to 2%. Possible working-group head appointments next week; aims for real‑time data–driven policy within a year. AI is driving a capex surge and stronger demand, but its inflationary impact is still unclear. Bank of England governor BAILEY said energy prices have fallen, forward guidance becomes problematic over time, and activity and the labour market are slowing with an expanding output gap. He wants to remove interest‑rate risk from the BoE balance sheet, sees no case for cuts now and says policy has tightened even without further hikes. ECB president LAGARDE said Europe is not in stagflation, noted EU–US interdependence on AI, expressed regret about past constraints from forward guidance, and judged euro‑area inflation and growth risks more balanced than a few weeks ago. Bank of Canada governor MACKLEM said the Canadian economy is weak, equities look richly valued, and inflation remains clearly above target; the BoC will keep inflation expectations anchored. The BoC’s balance sheet is at a new steady state. The timing of any AI‑driven disinflation is uncertain and short‑term computer prices have risen. Policy sits near the lower bound of neutral and is roughly at a level to curb inflation; officials stand ready to act if conditions change.

China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI 51.7, vs consensus 51.6 and May 51.8.