Analyst Eric Merlis said June nonfarm payrolls were significantly below expectations, a stark contrast with a string of upside surprises earlier this year, but the labor market is still adding jobs and wage growth shows little sign of accelerating. With participation falling and hiring cooling, the Fed’s decision to stand pat last month looks less like a policy mistake and more like prudent patience. Markets are repricing: as the inflation debate continues, the probability of further rate hikes

Analyst Eric Merlis said June nonfarm payrolls were significantly below expectations, a stark contrast with a string of upside surprises earlier this year, but the labor market is still adding jobs and wage growth shows little sign of accelerating. With participation falling and hiring cooling, the Fed’s decision to stand pat last month looks less like a policy mistake and more like prudent patience. Markets are repricing: as the inflation debate continues, the probability of further rate hikes is declining.