BNP Paribas SA chief economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said the probability of a
Fed rate move in July has fallen; only a very strong July nonfarm payroll print
near or above 130k would make the July meeting a close call, and she still sees
a case for further Fed tightening. Short-term rate futures price roughly a 20%
chance of a 25bp hike at the July 29 decision, down from about 33% before the
nonfarm print; markets still expect a 25bp hike this year, but not before
December. On the ECB, she sees the baseline as another hike in September but
noted Governing Council speakers at Sintra did not rule out skipping that move.
She warned energy-supply normalization may take six months or longer and could
reaccelerate eurozone inf, though consumer prices outside energy-affected areas
are unlikely to come under broad pressure.
