Nomura says the global storage industry’s core imbalance is a severe supply
shortage and AI-driven structural demand growth has not yet peaked. Investor
fears of an imminent supply glut are materially overblown, and recent market
weakness could offer a window to reassess storage valuations. Nomura notes
semiconductor capex-to-capacity conversion is very slow; a Korean investment
plan of about 4,800 trillion won will take at least 5–10 years to translate into
actual capacity. High-margin HBM (high-bandwidth memory) is crowding out
general-purpose memory capacity, further tightening supply. Nomura adds Meta’s
recent decision is not an inflection point for weaker AI hardware demand; Meta
bringing compute to market may help stabilise and push down per-token prices
that have risen amid current compute shortages.