CITIC Securities says market worries over Chinese electrolytic-aluminum overproduction and an Indonesian capacity ramp may be overstated. Accounting for potential supply disruptions and signs of demand improvement, it expects aluminum prices to be constructive through 2026 and H1 2027 and to remain supported by an approximate $3,000/ton cost curve and incentive price after H2 2027. The firm views Chinese aluminum producers as maintaining investment appeal.

2026-07-06

CITIC Securities says market worries over Chinese electrolytic-aluminum overproduction and an Indonesian capacity ramp may be overstated. Accounting for potential supply disruptions and signs of demand improvement, it expects aluminum prices to be constructive through 2026 and H1 2027 and to remain supported by an approximate $3,000/ton cost curve and incentive price after H2 2027. The firm views Chinese aluminum producers as maintaining investment appeal.