NZIER’s shadow monetary policy committee was nearly split but narrowly preferred
the RBNZ leave the OCR at 2.25% in July, describing the hold as a close call
versus a 25bp hike. Those favoring an earlier lift to neutral cited rising
inflation; opponents flagged weak demand and elevated unemployment as reasons
for caution. Committee members were divided on the oil-price shock—some saw its
inflationary impact as transitory and fading, others warned of more persistent
price pressure. Several members said the next key policy assessment point is the
Q2 CPI release. The panel unanimously judged the OCR should reach 3.0–3.25% over
the next year and advocated a gradual return of policy to neutral, while noting
weak demand and high unemployment argue for cautious tightening.
