Weakening commodity prices and a surge in imports tied to data-centre construction have narrowed Australia’s goods trade surplus and could produce the first annual trade deficit since 2016. Fuel and equipment imports have jumped while exports have stalled; the government forecasts major commodity export receipts will rise only 3% in the current fiscal year. After years of mining-driven export gains, softer commodity prices are expected to weigh on export income. A return to deficit would likely

Weakening commodity prices and a surge in imports tied to data-centre construction have narrowed Australia’s goods trade surplus and could produce the first annual trade deficit since 2016. Fuel and equipment imports have jumped while exports have stalled; the government forecasts major commodity export receipts will rise only 3% in the current fiscal year. After years of mining-driven export gains, softer commodity prices are expected to weigh on export income. A return to deficit would likely pressure the AUD and tighten fiscal space.