AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says a key risk over the next year is that after the upcoming midterm elections US President Trump may be less constrained and could use the window before the 2028 election to step up overseas military actions, including renewed moves against Iran and potential actions involving Greenland and Cuba. Oliver added the risk is particularly acute if Trump loses control of both chambers of Congress in November.

2026-07-07

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says a key risk over the next year is that after the upcoming midterm elections US President Trump may be less constrained and could use the window before the 2028 election to step up overseas military actions, including renewed moves against Iran and potential actions involving Greenland and Cuba. Oliver added the risk is particularly acute if Trump loses control of both chambers of Congress in November.