At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump said the U.S.-Iran Islamabad memorandum "is
over" and called the Iranian regime "sick," signaling the breakdown of a
ceasefire framework 20 days into a planned 60-day arrangement. He also revoked
sanctions waivers tied to the deal. A Pakistan-brokered 14-point framework had
briefly restored Iranian crude exports of several mln bpd; ending the deal and
rescinding waivers risks a renewed systemic reduction in global crude supply,
reinforcing upside pressure on WTI above $70 and on inflation expectations.
Following yesterday's attack on a Qatari LNG tanker in the Strait of Hormuz,
U.S. forces have launched retaliatory airstrikes. The return to kinetic
confrontation heightens the risk of indefinite disruption to the Strait of
Hormuz and Gulf of Oman and could push shipping insurance premiums and energy
risk premia sharply higher.
