国际货币基金组织：将日本2026年经济增长预测下调至0.6%，低于4月份的0.7%；同时将2027年预测上调0.1个百分点至0.7%。

美国至7月3日当周EIA汽油产量 -23.3万桶/日，前值48.1万桶/日。

Alam Saleh, a lecturer at the Australian National University, said NATO is unlikely to participate in any U.S.-led operation in the Strait of Hormuz despite pressure from President Trump. He said Iran treats a war as existential and has so far deterred open conflict. Saleh added NATO is fundamentally a defensive, regionally focused alliance whose collective-security remit is limited; joining U.S. action in Hormuz would require it to adopt an offensive, global role — a transformation he called unrealistic.