IMF now forecasts global trade growth of 3.5% in 2026, up from its April forecast of 2.8%; it projects 4.3% growth in 2027, versus 3.8% previously.

Asia-Pacific sovereign bond prices fell and yields rose after a crude oil spike. OCBC Bank strategists said the move underscores that inflation risk, expectations of tighter central-bank policy and trade-condition pressure can re-emerge quickly. They linked the oil rise to renewed US-Iran tensions after Washington withdrew waivers on Iranian oil sales following attacks on three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Australia 10-year yield +6bp to 4.8820%; New Zealand 10-year +8bp to 4.5080%; Japan 10-year +2.5bp to 2.865%.

U.S. President Trump on Iran: "This will all end soon."