Barclays' baseline projects the Fed will keep policy rates unchanged through end-2027. Barclays strategists nonetheless say the balance of risk is toward further hikes after the Fed's latest policy minutes showed participants increasingly concerned about inflation and the risk it remains persistently high, partly due to strong AI-related investment demand. Participants remain divided on the future policy path.

Military force is unlikely to restore regular shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the US and Iran at risk of a prolonged 'neither peace nor war' state. A ceasefire memorandum after US strikes on Feb. 28 used ambiguous wording that allows both sides to continue pursuing objectives by other means. Washington tried to increase tanker transits via the Omani-side channel, including switching off ship transponders, but the IRGC successfully struck several of those tankers, suggesting traffic is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels without further agreement. The Pentagon reportedly presented military options to break the stalemate, but they were rejected by President Trump; months of strikes have so far failed to produce decisive results, raising the prospect of extended instability in the strait.

China Biopharma (01177.HK) said it has deepened its strategic cooperation with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.N). Under the expanded agreement, subsidiary Zhengda Tianqing will manage importation, distribution, hospital access and promotion in mainland China for two GSK respiratory products: fluticasone furoate inhalation powder and umeclidinium bromide/vilanterol inhalation powder. The parties had earlier reached a collaboration on bringing innovative hepatology drugs to market in China.