China Index Academy said the property market remains in a bottoming phase and
recovery will continue to be uneven. Looking to H2, second‑hand markets in core
cities are likely to retain some activity; ongoing transaction improvement and
stabilizing listings should further narrow price declines and strengthen
price‑stability in some cities. For new homes, a low year‑earlier base in 2025
should help narrow national new‑home sales’ YoY declines in H2, but full market
repair will take time. Continued launches of higher‑quality projects in core
cities and supportive measures such as housing provident fund policies will
provide some support; however, supply is likely to remain constrained under
policies aimed at limiting new additions and reducing inventories, so recovery
is expected to be structural and led by quality supply. On construction and
investment, developer cash‑flow pressure and sales‑driven investment strategies
mean new starts and real estate development investment are expected to remain at
low levels.
