Morgan Stanley cut its PT on Alibaba (BABA.N) to $180 from $190, a 5% reduction,
and reiterated an overweight rating and top-pick view. After a recent share
pullback the firm says the stock now trades at an attractive valuation, roughly
13x FY2028 PE; its latest DCF-derived target equates to about 23x FY2028 PE.
Morgan Stanley raised revenue forecasts for FY27–28 by 2–3% on a larger cloud
contribution, partly offset by weaker e-commerce revenue; EBITA forecasts are
largely unchanged. The bank expects Alibaba’s cloud revenue growth to accelerate
to 45% YoY in the quarter to June (FY27) and to continue accelerating in
subsequent quarters. Excluding some one-off Spring Festival promotional costs,
Morgan Stanley sees ‘other losses’ narrowing to RMB16.5 bln in FY27 Q1, but
warns rising token prices will keep model-training costs for the Qianwen model
sizable and projects FY27 total ‘other losses’ of about RMB72 bln.