Ebury analyst Matthew Ryan says the pound's outlook depends on whether prospective UK prime minister Andy Burnham sticks to his pledge to uphold fiscal rules. If he does, GBP is likely to remain stable; any sign those rules are abandoned or distorted—even at the margins—could trigger disorderly selling of UK assets. Confirmation of Burnham's leadership around July 17 would give markets more clarity.

2026-07-09

Ebury analyst Matthew Ryan says the pound's outlook depends on whether prospective UK prime minister Andy Burnham sticks to his pledge to uphold fiscal rules. If he does, GBP is likely to remain stable; any sign those rules are abandoned or distorted—even at the margins—could trigger disorderly selling of UK assets. Confirmation of Burnham's leadership around July 17 would give markets more clarity.