State Street analyst Masahiko Loo said Japan’s finance minister Katayama’s
remark that pension funds may boost allocations to financial assets would be
supportive for Japanese government bonds and the yen. Any asset-allocation shift
is likely to be gradual; historically pension funds deviate only modestly from
domestic bond targets, implying limited but meaningful scope to raise domestic
bond exposure. Loo said the comment also signals policy intent amid market
doubts over how much firepower the finance ministry has for FX intervention.
With over $1 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, intervention remains an
option, but keeping domestic institutional capital at home would be a more
durable structural support for the yen; State Street remains constructive on
JGBs and the yen over the medium-to-long term.