BOC Securities says debate over a "growth-to-value rotation" has intensified but
concludes K-shaped fundamental divergence has not reversed and conditions for a
style switch are insufficient. Cloud providers' capex remains on an upward path
and global semiconductor sales continue to expand, indicating the AI cycle is
still trending higher. Recovery in traditional cyclical sectors is heavily
policy-dependent; current macro policy is focused on "consolidating
fundamentals" with limited urgency or room for broad aggregate stimulus, leaving
traditional sectors without systemic earnings elasticity. Growth therefore
retains a relative earnings advantage, and the market is in a consolidation
phase rather than at a bull–bear regime turning point.
