CITIC Securities research said lithium prices plunged this week as expectations
of marginally looser supply weighed, driven mainly by restarts at Jiangxi
lithium mines and Zimbabwe spodumene cargoes due in July. Concentrates remain
tight; several lithium-salt makers cut output amid feedstock constraints and
maintenance, while spodumene and mica production fell and weekly output
continued to decline. Inventories are still being drawn down, though some spot
parcels are being withheld to support prices. Demand shows no major weakness:
new upstream capacity will begin commissioning and ramp in H2, amplifying
downstream restocking, and a planned 2027 EV subsidy step-down is encouraging
installations this year and lifting H2 production expectations. Commercial
vehicle volumes rose 36% YoY in 1H; Jan–May pure-electric vehicle exports were
1.833 mln units, up 114.4% YoY. CITIC expects July and August production
schedules to post MoM gains — off-season not weak, with peak season likely.
