A July 3-8 survey of 56 economists shows the median euro-area 2026 growth forecast was cut to 0.5% from 0.7% a month earlier and below the ECB baseline of 0.8%, citing renewed Middle East hostilities. Respondents also lowered 2028 growth expectations while leaving next year’s forecast unchanged. Median inflation this year is seen at 2.8%, slightly down from last month after an earlier oil-price fall but still above the ECB’s 2% target. Economists expect the ECB to raise rates again in September

A July 3-8 survey of 56 economists shows the median euro-area 2026 growth forecast was cut to 0.5% from 0.7% a month earlier and below the ECB baseline of 0.8%, citing renewed Middle East hostilities. Respondents also lowered 2028 growth expectations while leaving next year’s forecast unchanged. Median inflation this year is seen at 2.8%, slightly down from last month after an earlier oil-price fall but still above the ECB’s 2% target. Economists expect the ECB to raise rates again in September and to enact its first cut in September 2027.