沪指翻红，指数重回3900点上方；深证成指涨幅扩大至0.71%，创业板指涨1.2%；转基因、PCB、医药电商概念股涨幅居前。

RBC says GBP may extend gains versus EUR in the near term, but could weaken again as fiscal concerns resurface in late 2026.

Analyst Divyang Shah says the Middle East conflict has become zero-sum across multiple dossiers—Lebanon, control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s enriched uranium and frozen assets—so one side’s gain implies the other’s clear loss, shrinking scope for compromise. This week the dispute over maritime control moved to the front line: US efforts to preserve free passage via an Oman route directly conflict with Iran’s intent to keep shipping on the northern Iran corridor. Attacks have specifically targeted vessels using the Oman route; over the past 24 hours the US has escorted a tanker convoy that had shut off AIS signals through the route while responding with restrained military strikes. The April 9 ceasefire and June 17 memorandum created a temporary window that let Iran fortify positions and redeploy concealed missiles, and let the US clear ships and export urgent cargoes including crude. Bloomberg reports that of 109 non‑Iranian large tankers in the Gulf when the war began, only one remained; 50 left on June 18 or later. With Iran likely seeking to reassert control and block normalization of the Oman corridor, escalation risk is rising as the US conducts successive strike rounds. Implied volatility has fallen since the March/April peak, but the renewed contest for Strait control increases the case for re‑pricing oil/shipping risk premia and volatility.