Economists expect June headline CPI to be pulled lower by a fall in energy prices, but the Fed is focused on core inflation. Core CPI is forecast near May’s 0.21% MoM; market attention will then shift to PPI and what its trend implies for the PCE.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on July 14 it launched a military operation codenamed Nasr-2, targeting multiple ammunition depots, a satellite communications center and a building housing US forces in Bahrain. The IRGC said the strikes were in response to the enemy's latest aggression, had "inflicted significant damage", and that retaliatory strikes were still ongoing.

OPEC monthly report leaves U.S. GDP growth forecast at 2.2% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027.