IBM(IBM.N)首席执行官：预计会有一些供应链相关的影响。

U.S. consumer prices fell more than expected in June, recording the largest monthly drop since April 2020 as a sharp fall in energy eased recent inflationary pressure. Headline CPI declined 0.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted), taking the y/y rate to 3.5%; economists had penciled in -0.2% m/m and 3.8% y/y. Core CPI (ex food and energy) was unchanged m/m, with the 12-month rate at 2.6% versus market expectations of +0.2% m/m and 2.9% y/y. The energy index plunged 5.7% m/m (still +15.7% y/y); gasoline and fuel oil each fell more than 9%. Services inflation excluding energy eased noticeably—a key Fed-watch category—with housing up just 0.1% and transportation services down 0.3%. Food rose 0.2% m/m; new vehicle prices were flat; used cars and trucks fell 0.2%; apparel declined 0.6%.

Goldman analysts say earnings growth is likely to remain the main driver of US equities even as a more hawkish Fed raises downside risk. Goldman expects the Fed to keep rates on hold this year but assigns a 25% probability of a rate hike. A Fed resumption of hikes would affect equities via three channels: higher rates weakening the growth outlook — and historically growth has mattered more for equity performance than rates themselves; the current AI-led investment cycle is unusually capital‑intensive, making firms more sensitive to higher financing costs; and past tightening cycles have coincided with weak equity returns. Goldman adds: "Whether or not the Fed hikes, uncertainty about the Fed's policy path will raise rate volatility risk and constitute a headwind for equities."