June inflation undershot expectations; CME's FedWatch shows probability of a Fed July rate hike fell to 17% from 42% yesterday. June CPI was -0.4% MoM and +3.5% YoY, indicating softer price trends than economists had forecast. Even excluding last month's sharp oil-price drop, inflation still came in better than expected. Spartan's Peter Cardillo said the print exceeded expectations and has sharply reduced, though not eliminated, the chance of a July hike. FedWatch still implies markets expect at

2026-07-14

June inflation undershot expectations; CME's FedWatch shows probability of a Fed July rate hike fell to 17% from 42% yesterday. June CPI was -0.4% MoM and +3.5% YoY, indicating softer price trends than economists had forecast. Even excluding last month's sharp oil-price drop, inflation still came in better than expected. Spartan's Peter Cardillo said the print exceeded expectations and has sharply reduced, though not eliminated, the chance of a July hike. FedWatch still implies markets expect at least one rate hike this year.