June inflation undershot expectations; CME's FedWatch shows probability of a Fed
July rate hike fell to 17% from 42% yesterday. June CPI was -0.4% MoM and +3.5%
YoY, indicating softer price trends than economists had forecast. Even excluding
last month's sharp oil-price drop, inflation still came in better than expected.
Spartan's Peter Cardillo said the print exceeded expectations and has sharply
reduced, though not eliminated, the chance of a July hike. FedWatch still
implies markets expect at least one rate hike this year.