BOC flagged a key upside inflation risk is firms passing higher input costs onto consumers. It warned its productivity estimate may be weaker than previously assumed, implying a smaller output gap and greater inflationary pressure. Downside risks to inflation include a potential tightening of global financial conditions and a weaker-than-expected domestic recovery. The BOC projects Brent will decline to about $70/bbl by end-2027, based on the July 9 futures curve and slightly below its April for

BOC flagged a key upside inflation risk is firms passing higher input costs onto consumers. It warned its productivity estimate may be weaker than previously assumed, implying a smaller output gap and greater inflationary pressure. Downside risks to inflation include a potential tightening of global financial conditions and a weaker-than-expected domestic recovery. The BOC projects Brent will decline to about $70/bbl by end-2027, based on the July 9 futures curve and slightly below its April forecast, while noting the oil outlook is highly uncertain. Policymakers raised export projections, partly reflecting increased energy-related activity.