Dollar index (DXY) down 0.50% intraday at 100.43.

China Index Academy says H1 policies continued to signal support for stabilizing the property market. It expects further supply- and demand-side support measures in H2, with policy focus on stabilizing expectations and promoting price stability. The institute forecasts the property market will keep a bottoming/repair trend in H2, with market divergence likely to deepen. For new-home sales, a relatively low year-ago base in 2025 should help narrow nationwide YoY declines in H2, but full market recovery will take time; ongoing launches of higher-quality projects in core cities and continued policy support will provide partial underpinning. On resales, transaction volumes in core cities are expected to remain stable, listings are stabilizing and improving supply–demand balance, and second‑hand home prices are likely to trade in a narrow range in H2.

China International Capital Co reports US June CPI (seasonally adjusted) fell 0.4% MoM and 3.5% YoY; core CPI was flat MoM and up 2.6% YoY — both below consensus. Energy price declines were the main driver, but renewed US–Iran tensions raise the risk of energy-driven upside to inflation. AI-related inflationary effects are emerging: upstream hardware supply–demand mismatches, rising software and peripheral prices, and AI-driven capex boosting aggregate demand could make core inflation stickier. June disinflation supports the Fed holding in July, but recent Waller comments indicate the Fed is reassessing pre-emptive hikes. The firm retains a baseline view of no rate hikes this year, but warns the threshold for tightening has fallen; one to two hotter inflation prints could prompt the Fed to reopen rate-hike discussions.