Swiss National Bank says the risk of a sharp Swiss franc appreciation persists amid geopolitical uncertainty.

US forces have struck Iran for five consecutive days to degrade Tehran’s attack capability in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has threatened to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges next week if no deal is reached; Tehran warns continued US attacks would spread the conflict. A Cambridge international politics lecturer says the White House will likely return to negotiations ahead of US midterms, adding Iran wants talks and the door is open but has lost trust in the US after previous withdrawals from agreements. Earlier this year a memorandum reached after a joint action with Israel set a 60‑day target for a permanent ceasefire, but the truce collapsed after Iran struck vessels it accused of unauthorised transit and the US responded with escalating strikes. The lecturer said Iran’s weak pre-conflict economy — and the potential for higher oil, inflation and fertilizer prices — could push both sides back to the table, while US midterm political pressure raises Washington’s incentive to negotiate.

Tech now represents roughly 56% of Nikkei index weight, up from 35% in 2022. As the AI-driven tech rally cools, Japanese equities have pulled back, echoing volatility in other tech-heavy markets. DWS global CIO Vincenzo Vedda cut semiconductor to neutral after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rallied about 90% in Q2, warning that slower-than-expected AI commercialisation could prompt cloud providers to pare capex. Despite the pause, most institutions remain constructive: JPX says the market has shown resilience and buyers emerge on dips, while Citigroup Tokyo strategist Ryota Sakagami notes rapid upward revisions to tech EPS have kept price moves within a “healthy growth” range rather than signalling a bubble. Valuation supports the bullish case: Nikkei 225 forward 12-month P/E near 22x versus over 60x in the 1980s bubble. Ongoing Japanese capital-market reforms are also cited as a driver of foreign inflows.