US-Iran tit‑for‑tat strikes have accelerated, keeping oil markets, regional risk
and US munitions inventories in focus. Iran faces deep economic strain from
decades of US sanctions and recent fighting: per‑capita GDP has fallen from
about $8,000 to $5,000 and oil exports have dropped from roughly 2.2m bpd to
1.5m bpd. A June memorandum briefly eased restrictions — 60‑day waivers and
asset unfreezing pushed the rial up ~15% — but the US has reimposed sanctions
this week. CSIS analysis says Iran has taken heavy military attrition: as of
April 1 missile stocks down ~30% and drone stocks down ~60%, with significant
damage to naval infrastructure and weapons production sites; strikes have
continued, including recent attacks on Greater Tunb island. Oil jumped about 12%
after the latest strikes amid renewed fears for Strait of Hormuz transit;
roughly one‑fifth of global oil flows use the strait. US domestic politics and
costs matter: US average gasoline rose from $2.98/gal pre‑conflict to a May peak
of $4.63/gal, and a YouGov poll shows 57% of Americans view participation as
wrong ahead of November midterms. US munitions consumption is also a constraint
— CSIS reports four of seven main combat munitions were more than half expended
in the first phase; replenishment under industrial measures would take months to
years — and analysts warn key interceptors and cruise missiles are being
consumed rapidly. Iran appears resilient: analysts say leadership views the
fight as existential, drone production reportedly resumed after April ceasefire
and could replenish stocks within months. Regionally, Gulf states are
strengthening data‑sharing and early‑warning coordination. Market takeaway:
elevated oil risk premium, potential for protracted disruption to regional
supply, and near‑term pressure on US military inventories and political capital.
