US strikes against Iran have increasingly hit civilian infrastructure — bridges,
water-treatment facilities and grain stores — prompting analysts to warn of
heightened oil and shipping risk and a broader shift in US targeting. King's
College senior lecturer Mark Hilborne says many struck sites are dual-use but
clearly affect civilians; he highlights bridges as key to southern military
logistics and to Iran's ability to move equipment and threaten shipping.
Hilborne adds a northeast bridge struck earlier sits on a strategic trade
corridor used for economic traffic and alleged weapons-part shipments. Attacks
have concentrated on Bandar Abbas, home to Iran's conventional navy and the IRGC
naval base overlooking the Strait of Hormuz; more than 90% of Iran's oil exports
transit the strait, making Bandar Abbas both a military and economic choke
point. London military analyst Alex Alfirraz Scheers says expanding strikes
beyond conventional military targets may signal a wider strategic shift — aimed
at enforcing a maritime blockade, degrading military logistics and pressuring
Iran to negotiate — and could represent early steps toward preparing limited
ground operations. Lancaster University professor Simon Mabon cautions the
pattern could be interpreted as a precursor to ground intervention but calls a
full-scale invasion unlikely and warns attacks on civilian infrastructure may
strengthen Tehran's domestic narrative and raise the risk of further escalation.
Market takeaway: strikes widening to infrastructure in southern Iran and at
Bandar Abbas raise the risk premium on crude flows and regional shipping
security, warranting close monitoring for disruption to exports and any signs of
further escalation.
