New Fed chair Walsh has adopted an early hawkish tone to build anti-inflation credibility and respond to concerns about political interference. June nonfarm payrolls rose 57k and CPI fell 0.4% MoM, easing near-term pressure to tighten, but headline inflation remains 3.5% YoY—one weak print does not confirm a trend reversal. TS Lombard global macro managing director Dario Perkins says Walsh's hawkishness is not pure bravado: FOMC frustration over persistent inflation predated his arrival, and Mid

New Fed chair Walsh has adopted an early hawkish tone to build anti-inflation credibility and respond to concerns about political interference. June nonfarm payrolls rose 57k and CPI fell 0.4% MoM, easing near-term pressure to tighten, but headline inflation remains 3.5% YoY—one weak print does not confirm a trend reversal. TS Lombard global macro managing director Dario Perkins says Walsh's hawkishness is not pure bravado: FOMC frustration over persistent inflation predated his arrival, and Middle East energy risk could push prices back up. The real policy divergence is over the next 6–12 months, not July or September. If US employment reaccelerates, it would indicate current policy is insufficiently tight and would undercut the view that AI-driven productivity can absorb demand, forcing Walsh to deliver sustained rate hikes to validate his stance.