Swiss gold imports rose 13.5% in June to 174 tonnes.

COMMERZBANK FX strategist says rising Middle East tensions and higher energy prices make a firm ECB signal of willingness to hike further euro-positive. He expects the ECB to hold this week but to raise rates again in September; if the US‑Iran conflict escalates, explicit ECB readiness to continue hiking after September would be decisive in limiting EUR/USD downside. Mitsubishi UFJ strategists see a very low probability of back‑to‑back ECB hikes this week and note even hawks such as Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel favor a hold; the energy-price rebound supports a +25bp September hike call. Euro‑area rate markets are nearly fully pricing two more ECB hikes by year‑end, pushing short-term rates back toward this year’s highs, while softer US inflation has reduced the passthrough from energy to Fed hike odds, shifting yield differentials in the euro’s favor.

ADP weekly employment report: over the four weeks to July 4, 2026, private-sector employers added an average of 16,500 jobs per week.