Commerzbank rates strategist Hauke Siemssen said expected slowing UK inflation should set the tone for bond markets this morning, while oil remains the dominant driver. Ongoing US–Iran strikes and Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping have lifted Brent crude back to $92/bbl, prompting a bearish market tone. Siemssen said a decline in this morning’s UK inflation reading would likely produce a milder market backdrop.

JP Morgan strategists say they are staying on the sidelines before taking outright duration in the US short end, citing short-term yields near recent highs, a Fed blackout period and key jobs data still weeks away; they continue to advise patience and do not recommend establishing duration at current levels. The two-year Treasury yield briefly fell 0.8bps intraday to 4.252%, near the multi-month high of 4.298% hit on July 14.

【新加坡领跑东南亚创纪录外资流入】大华银行指出，受供应链转移和资本重新配置推动，东南亚成为“战略赢家”，凸显该地区经济韧性。根据大华银行对联合国贸易和发展会议最新数据的分析，2025年流入东南亚的外国直接投资（FDI）同比增长10%，达到创纪录的2440亿美元。增速超过全球6%的增长水平，使东南亚吸引的投资规模接近欧洲。其中，新加坡是仅次于美国的第二大最受欢迎外国投资目的地，吸引外资流入1510亿美元。马来西亚表现最为突出，外资流入增长51%，主要受数字基础设施投资推动。泰国和越南的外资流入也有所增加，而印度尼西亚则下降14%。该行经济学家Enrico Tanuwidjaja和Vincentius Ming Shen补充：“乍看之下，印尼FDI流入量的下降可能会引发担忧，但这种下降实际上掩盖了全球投资者持续的长期投入。”