ING said in a July 21 report that new U.S. investment incentives should support
primary aluminum smelting capacity in the long run but will not materially alter
U.S. import dependence or tight Midwest premiums in the near term. Under the
Trump administration policy, projects that build, expand or refurbish U.S.
smelters and meet approved investment milestones can import qualifying aluminum
at a 25% tariff rate instead of the standard 50%. ING warned U.S. primary
aluminum faces a structural supply shortfall: despite tariff protection,
domestic smelter output has fallen and only four primary smelters remain in
operation, so meaningful new capacity will take years. Fundamental constraints
include the need for competitively priced, reliable power, multi‑bln dollar
capital outlays, long‑term power purchase agreements, environmental approvals
and multi‑year construction timelines. The fastest‑moving project is Emirates
Global Aluminium and Century Aluminum’s planned 750,000 tpa Oklahoma smelter,
but ING said it is unlikely to deliver material incremental U.S. supply before
2030. ING concluded the policy is a long‑term industrial measure rather than a
short‑term remedy for U.S. primary aluminum shortages or procurement cost
pressures; Midwest premiums are expected to remain elevated while import
reliance continues.
