WBG Senior VP and Chief Economist Indermit Gill said on 22nd that a renewed US‑Iran escalation could lift inflation and interest rates and cut global growth to about 1.3% this year. In its June forecast the WBG modelled three scenarios; the worst case — conflict lasting six months or longer — is now close to reality and would push global inflation to roughly 4.5%. Prolonged fighting and damage to Middle East oil infrastructure would also disrupt shipments of fertilizer, helium and sulfur, worsen

WBG Senior VP and Chief Economist Indermit Gill said on 22nd that a renewed US‑Iran escalation could lift inflation and interest rates and cut global growth to about 1.3% this year. In its June forecast the WBG modelled three scenarios; the worst case — conflict lasting six months or longer — is now close to reality and would push global inflation to roughly 4.5%. Prolonged fighting and damage to Middle East oil infrastructure would also disrupt shipments of fertilizer, helium and sulfur, worsening food insecurity. Gill warned that countries still recovering from COVID could face sharper food stress, while high‑debt countries may see education, health and other spending squeezed by rising rates; if inflation accelerates, some high‑debt nations could encounter serious debt‑servicing problems within months.