U.S. crude production in the week to July 17 posted its largest weekly drop since the week of Jan. 30, 2026. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks in the week to July 17 were at their lowest level since the week of March 25, 1983.

Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state.

RSM UK analyst Thomas Pugh said June inflation fell to 2.6%, effectively ruling out a Bank of England rate hike next week. The drop was driven mainly by declines in food, fuel and energy prices, while services inflation — the key gauge of domestic price pressures — was in line with expectations. Pugh expects inflation to rebound to about 3.3% in autumn as rising energy costs, supply‑chain strains and food-price pressures feed through, with upside risk if oil spikes. He expects Bank Rate to remain on hold and sees no rate cuts before 2027.