Helaba analysts said an escalation in the Arabian Gulf and higher energy prices are unlikely to reassure central bankers ahead of the ECB policy decision later today. They see no clear sign of an imminent rate hike and are waiting for market signals to judge whether September will deliver tightening; money markets currently price a 21 bps ECB hike in September. Helaba expects the ECB’s statement wording — that the Governing Council will not pre-commit to a specific rate path — to remain material

Helaba analysts said an escalation in the Arabian Gulf and higher energy prices are unlikely to reassure central bankers ahead of the ECB policy decision later today. They see no clear sign of an imminent rate hike and are waiting for market signals to judge whether September will deliver tightening; money markets currently price a 21 bps ECB hike in September. Helaba expects the ECB’s statement wording — that the Governing Council will not pre-commit to a specific rate path — to remain materially unchanged and the bank to continue deciding on a meeting-by-meeting basis.