ING analysts say the pound could give back recent gains if UK short-term rates fall and fiscal risks return. They view UK inflation as unlikely to hit the 4% threshold that would trigger further Bank of England tightening, while the ECB may still raise rates again. ING also flags that new UK prime minister Andy Burnham is open to larger policy changes, leaving open the possibility of a bolder budget in Oct or Nov. ING forecasts EUR/GBP 0.88 by year-end and 0.90 in 2027.