South Korean won rose to 1,463.1 per dollar, its strongest level since early May.

市场消息：乌克兰苏梅地区传出爆炸声。

Four market-relevant judgments by Trump have been at odds with subsequent events: Iranian military capability, conflict duration, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices. On Iranian military capability: Trump repeatedly asserted Iran’s forces and command had been destroyed (statements on Mar 9, Apr 25, May 1 and Jul 8). In reality Iran retains strike capability and has continued attacks on US forces, regional US allies and commercial vessels, causing US casualties. On conflict duration: Trump forecast the campaign would conclude in roughly four weeks (Mar 1, Mar 26) and said it would end quickly (May 19). The conflict has persisted for nearly five months and Trump has recently threatened further escalation. On the Strait of Hormuz: Trump said the US was controlling the strait and that Iran could not interfere (Jul 13, Jul 20). Iran has claimed responsibility for recent attacks near the strait, and a US Navy–led maritime information center reported commercial shipping activity fell to a three-week low in the past 48 hours. On oil prices: Trump repeatedly said prices were falling back toward pre-conflict levels (statements Jun 17, Jul 8, Jul 19, Jul 22). Oil briefly dipped below pre-conflict levels but has since rebounded after the ceasefire collapsed and attacks resumed.