An Emerson College poll finds Democrats leading Republicans 53% to 42% on midterm election preference—the largest Democratic margin in the series. Trump's approval is 39% with 57% disapproval. The Democratic edge is concentrated among women, where Democrats lead by 27 percentage points. Newsweek applied a uniform national swing to House districts and estimates Democrats could flip about 36 Republican-held seats, implying a hypothetical 251-184 House split; Newsweek stressed this is a national-mo

An Emerson College poll finds Democrats leading Republicans 53% to 42% on midterm election preference—the largest Democratic margin in the series. Trump's approval is 39% with 57% disapproval. The Democratic edge is concentrated among women, where Democrats lead by 27 percentage points. Newsweek applied a uniform national swing to House districts and estimates Democrats could flip about 36 Republican-held seats, implying a hypothetical 251-184 House split; Newsweek stressed this is a national-model stress test, not a forecast, and actual outcomes will depend on candidate quality, local issues, turnout and districting.