July saw rapid margin‑financing outflows, but regulatory support and onshore
incremental funds have helped stabilise short‑term liquidity. External pressures
— Middle East tensions lifting oil, higher US Treasury yields and renewed Fed
hike expectations — have dented global risk appetite. CITIC says the AI sector’s
mid‑to‑long‑term thesis remains intact: KimiK3 is reshaping the performance/cost
narrative, expanding workflow coverage and accelerating vertical penetration,
and Google’s counter‑trend capex increase supports a compute supply‑demand
mismatch. Near term the market is likely to trade a W‑shaped bottom; investors
should wait for external uncertainty to clear while rebalancing into low‑base
areas with solid fundamentals and valuation‑recovery potential. Key focus: AI
(upstream materials/equipment, domestic compute), midstream export manufacturing
chains (new energy, machinery, shipbuilding), upstream resources and defensive
dividend plays.
