Probability of a new Iran–U.S. ceasefire has risen after reports that U.S. President Trump decided to pause recent strikes on southern Iran. Traders on prediction market Polymarket now assign a 75% probability to a ceasefire by Aug 31, 2026.

2026-07-27

Probability of a new Iran–U.S. ceasefire has risen after reports that U.S. President Trump decided to pause recent strikes on southern Iran. Traders on prediction market Polymarket now assign a 75% probability to a ceasefire by Aug 31, 2026.