Last month Washington and Tehran signed a 14-point memorandum including a
ceasefire, which briefly halted European fuel-price rises. Eurostat shows June
diesel fell 6.4% MoM and gasoline fell 4.2% MoM versus May. Renewed tensions and
fresh supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, with no resolution
visible, have pushed prices higher; global crude topped $100/bbl last week, the
strongest level since early June. YoY fuel-price moves were largest in Bulgaria,
Lithuania and Romania, each up more than 23%. Hungary maintains a fuel-price
cap; Spain and Poland cut VAT on gasoline and diesel to blunt increases—Brussels
has pushed for excise-duty cuts instead. Spain’s large downstream refining
network limits its dependence on imported finished fuels despite heavy crude
import reliance.
