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伊朗和美国之间很快达成新停火协议的机会似乎再次上升，因有报道称美国总统特朗普决定暂停近期对伊朗南部的打击行动。在预测市场Polymarket上，交易员认为在2026年8月31日前实现停火的概率已达到75%。

Key market themes: Fed-led “super central bank week” with a pivotal FOMC decision and Fed Chair KEVIN WARSH press conference, June core PCE and US GDP data, heavy US tech earnings, weekly US oil inventories and an OPEC+ meeting. Monday — German IFO, UK CBI retail, US durable goods (Jun MoM) and Dallas Fed business index. Tuesday — US ADP payrolls (week to Jul 11), FHFA house prices (May MoM), S&P/Case‑Shiller 20‑city YoY (May), Conference Board consumer confidence (Jul) and RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA Governor BULLOCK speaks. Wednesday — API crude stocks (week to Jul 24); EIA crude, Cushing and SPR weekly stocks; Australia unadj CPI (Jun YoY); Swiss ZEW; UK mortgage approvals; SK Hynix Q2 results. Thursday — FOMC rate decision and Chair KEVIN WARSH press conference; BOE rate decision, minutes, monetary policy report and Governor BAILEY press conference; BOC minutes; US advance Q2 GDP (annualized), Q2 core PCE (annualized preliminary), Jun core PCE (MoM/Yr), personal spending (Jun MoM), initial jobless claims; Eurozone and major European GDP preliminaries and sentiment indicators; Germany Jul CPI prelim; EIA weekly gas stocks; Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm and ARM report Q2 after US close. Friday — Japan unemployment (Jun); China Jul official manufacturing PMI; UK Nationwide house prices; Eurozone Jul CPI prelim (YoY/MoM); France CPI prelim (Jul MoM); Germany unemployment data; Canada May GDP; US Q2 unit labour costs, Chicago PMI (Jul), U. of Michigan final confidence and 1‑yr inflation expectation (Jul); BANK OF JAPAN rate decision and Governor UEDA press conference; China opens new domestic refined‑fuel price adjustment window; Amazon and Apple report after US close. Saturday — US rotary/drill rig count (week to Jul 31). Sunday — OPEC+ monthly ministerial meeting.