Citigroup traders are positioned for the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged this week, Akshay Singal, the bank’s global head of short-term rates trading, said; their positions would profit if the Fed holds. Singal said Citigroup still expects no change and noted Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has urged markets to focus on the data, which he says currently do not warrant a rate hike.

South Korea's Lee instructed senior officials to maintain the country's oil-price cap amid renewed Middle East tensions until oil-price uncertainty is fully removed. He ordered continued use of complementary measures, including fuel tax cuts, and said further steps should be considered if the situation deteriorates. Lee highlighted truck drivers, heavy-equipment operators, farmers and foreign workers as particularly exposed to high fuel costs and ordered probes into market irregularities such as hoarding or price manipulation, directing officials to take measures to stabilize consumer prices.

Goldman Sachs analysts expect the Fed to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at this week’s meeting and say market reaction will depend heavily on how Fed chair KEVIN WARSH frames the decision and the path forward. They warn that a hold without clear guidance on the economic outlook or the Fed’s reaction function could destabilize the currently stable long-end US Treasury curve and the contained inflation risk premium. Money markets price a 31.5% chance of a hike this week, though the market consensus remains for no change.