ING economists say the Bank of England's latest projections will show inflation near 3% from H2 this year into early next year, a level they view as within the Bank's tolerance. ING's base case is for the Bank to remain on hold through 2026, with policy easing delayed to the next cycle; ING currently forecasts two rate cuts beginning in spring 2027 but says that path hinges on the autumn budget containing no material fiscal stimulus. Sterling has come under pressure as investors question how new

ING economists say the Bank of England's latest projections will show inflation near 3% from H2 this year into early next year, a level they view as within the Bank's tolerance. ING's base case is for the Bank to remain on hold through 2026, with policy easing delayed to the next cycle; ING currently forecasts two rate cuts beginning in spring 2027 but says that path hinges on the autumn budget containing no material fiscal stimulus. Sterling has come under pressure as investors question how new Prime Minister Burnham will fund pledges to cap transport fares and electricity bills, reviving concerns over public finances after the 2022 Truss fiscal episode.