D.A. Davidson's co‑CIO and head of investment management and research said that since the Fed's last meeting inflation has moderated and job growth has been modest, but a July escalation in US‑Iran military tensions has disrupted those trends and could reverse the overall inflation progress seen in June. The Fed must assess whether core inflation is sustainably lower; if higher inflation expectations are forming, it should raise rates in July rather than wait until September, since delaying coul

D.A. Davidson's co‑CIO and head of investment management and research said that since the Fed's last meeting inflation has moderated and job growth has been modest, but a July escalation in US‑Iran military tensions has disrupted those trends and could reverse the overall inflation progress seen in June. The Fed must assess whether core inflation is sustainably lower; if higher inflation expectations are forming, it should raise rates in July rather than wait until September, since delaying could invite political criticism ahead of the midterm elections.