Ebury analyst Matthew Ryan says markets expect the Bank of England to hold rates on Thursday, but the vote split will determine sterling’s reaction. A 7-2 split (two voters for a hike), coupled with rhetoric that downplays energy-driven inflation spikes, would likely cool tightening expectations and weigh on the pound. Conversely, a 6-3 split, accompanied by projections implying inflation may peak nearer 4% rather than 3%, would support sterling and lift front-end yields.

Australia's June CPI came in below expectations, easing near-term pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to tighten policy and giving the bank more room to assess the outlook. The Australian dollar and local government bond yields fell after the print. The RBA raised rates at its first three meetings this year to curb inflation that emerged before the US–Iran-driven global energy shock. Despite prices remaining elevated, another tightening at the August 11 meeting—when the RBA will publish updated quarterly forecasts—now looks less likely.

美国七年期国债收益率在440亿美元的拍卖后小幅下跌，现报4.463%，下跌4.63个基点。