Macquarie Group head of economic research David Doyle expects the Fed to hold rates at this meeting, but said the decision looks less clear-cut than earlier in the year. Market-implied odds of a rate hike are about 35%. The chair’s wording at the press conference and FOMC voting splits will be key. Markets will watch for dissents and any shift in statement language; if rates are held, dissenting votes are likely, with the count depending on how hawkish the wording becomes. Doyle still sees the n

Macquarie Group head of economic research David Doyle expects the Fed to hold rates at this meeting, but said the decision looks less clear-cut than earlier in the year. Market-implied odds of a rate hike are about 35%. The chair’s wording at the press conference and FOMC voting splits will be key. Markets will watch for dissents and any shift in statement language; if rates are held, dissenting votes are likely, with the count depending on how hawkish the wording becomes. Doyle still sees the next policy move most likely a hike in December. The statement could upgrade its description of unemployment (June said “little changed”) after a further small decline, and overall risk is skewed toward adding language that implies a bias to tighten.