JP Morgan expects the US Treasury, when publishing next week’s quarterly refunding plan, to avoid any adjustments that could signal larger future issuance and unsettle markets before the November midterm elections. JP Morgan sees a $3.7tn funding shortfall over the next four fiscal years and says officials, in principle, should drop the word "at least" from language that auction sizes are expected to remain stable for the next few quarters to align with prudent debt management; politically, howe

JP Morgan expects the US Treasury, when publishing next week’s quarterly refunding plan, to avoid any adjustments that could signal larger future issuance and unsettle markets before the November midterm elections. JP Morgan sees a $3.7tn funding shortfall over the next four fiscal years and says officials, in principle, should drop the word "at least" from language that auction sizes are expected to remain stable for the next few quarters to align with prudent debt management; politically, however, the Treasury is likely to refrain from signaling increased long-term supply because that could push up long-term US Treasury yields, which are already near highs since Trump’s inauguration.