布油已从上周高位回落超15%，黄金却只反弹了半天就退回4000美元附近。过去“油涨金跌”的逻辑顺滑运转，现在反过来却走不通了。传导链到底卡在了哪个环节？是暂时卡住还是关系已经变了？

Before the Fed decision the dollar index was flat amid unusually high outcome uncertainty. Goldman Sachs economists expect the Fed to hold today but anticipate at least one dissenting vote for a hike, noting war-driven energy-price volatility clouds the outlook. Market pricing assigns roughly a 30% chance of a rate increase today; CME data shows investors have priced in a September hike. Goldman says if the Fed holds, FX markets will focus on how much previously priced-in tightening shifts to later meetings.

Petronas expects to continue supplying up to 540,000 tonnes/year of LNG to Japan’s Hokuriku Electric under a 10-year term starting in 2028.