Fed chair Kevin Warsh said financial markets have already priced most of the Fed's tightening since the June meeting and rejected describing today's decision to hold rates as a 'pause'. U.S. 2‑yr and 10‑yr Treasury yields have risen about 20bps since mid‑June. Warsh said markets have been repricing on inflation prints and resilient growth, lifting both nominal and real yields, and that leaving the policy rate unchanged today is 'the beginning, not the end' of the policy story.

巴克莱银行：我们将今日议息结果定性为鹰派按兵不动，三张反对票将助燃未来几个月加息的押注。

Huatai Macro says the July FOMC hold has, to some extent, damaged Fed credibility—market inflation expectations rose and long-end yields moved higher. By contrast, June’s unexpectedly hawkish FOMC had tightened financial conditions, lowered inflation expectations and boosted Fed credibility. With energy prices rebounding, July’s pause may have led markets to view Waller’s zero-tolerance inflation rhetoric as bluff; post-meeting inflation expectations and long-term yields rose, signaling a partial loss of credibility. Huatai still assigns a relatively high probability of a September rate hike and keeps a baseline of 1–2 hikes this year and two more before mid-next year. Key risks: (1) Waller’s hawkish stance could be bluster; (2) an abrupt end to the AI-driven rally could tighten financial conditions and make further hikes unnecessary. Watch July–August jobs and inflation prints and Waller’s Jackson Hole speech on Aug. 27.